Beware the Old Lady

I love riding on buses. The humming of the engine, the people-watching and the opportunity for personal reflection is something I've come to enjoy. Not to mention the occasional inspirational event that occurs. This post is about one of those.

I was doing my thing, sitting comfortably and enjoying my music when this old lady boarded the bus. She walked over in my direction, slowly looking around before noticing there were no seats available and began to look down.

At this point in time, I was ready to do what any able-bodied young man should do: give up my seat. Yet in the split second before I did it, I glanced around and noticed every other passenger was looking at me. Then it hit me that I seemed to be the youngest male around hence I was the natural choice to be sacrificed so that the old lady can rest her legs. There was this pressure in the air created by this accumulation of intense eye-power and I could not help but spring to my feet and give up my seat.

The tension in the air was immediately alleviated.

I felt that I had done the right thing yet a nagging thought persists: did I succumb to the mass pressure? Were I to put on the disguise of an old lady, would anyone give up their seat for me? Well, maybe not because everyone can see clearly that I am wearing a wig and do not have a very lady-ish face.

How about in the markets? Can you tell a real old lady from a disguised one?

Which index or model can best predict an accurate rise or fall? Will you be able to time your 'giving up of the seat' perfectly to the real old lady? Or will you give up your seat too readily only to find that you gave up your seat to me?

This habit of timing the markets often results in the investor making lesser than if he had just invested regularly over a period of 5 to 10 years. This episode of the old lady reminded me that I should always filter out the noise, stay invested and invest regularly. This is a much easier method of accumulating wealth than constantly monitoring the markets, looking over your shoulder for the old lady.

In a nutshell, invest regularly with a wolf strategy, and stay invested.

Related Posts:
To Ride a Bus
Fooled by Randomness
Freekonomics